Ah, the most delightful season for tennis enthusiasts in Canada has arrived!
This year, Canada’s two prominent cities are poised to welcome (nearly) the crème de la crème of tennis talent. The National Bank Open presented by Rogers carries the weight of high expectations this time around.
Last summer, Victoria Mboko captivated the nation’s attention by defeating Naomi Osaka in Montreal, claiming her place as the first Canadian singles champion since Bianca Andreescu in 2019. This pivotal victory resonated deeply within both the country and the sport.
However, this year’s tournament will miss her presence. Mboko, at just 19, suffered an MCL injury during last month’s HSBC Championships in England, sidelining her from the NBO and the upcoming US Open.
Yet, hope springs eternal. Other Canadian talents are eager to seize the opportunity, including Felix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 2 seed in the men’s bracket.
Can Felix Conquer NBO Challenges?
Undoubtedly, Auger-Aliassime stands as Canada’s finest prospect for clinching the title. Ranked No. 4 in the world, this two-seed is set to perform in front of his home crowd in Quebec. His path to the finals appears relatively promising.
Nevertheless, home court doesn’t guarantee Auger-Aliassime an easy ride. The 25-year-old has yet to advance beyond the second round at the National Bank Open since 2022, reaching the quarterfinals then. His win/loss record of 42% at the NBO remains among his weakest across all Masters 1000 events.
During his last appearance in Montreal two years ago, he was ousted in the first round by Flavio Cobboli in straight sets. Projected to again meet Cobboli in the quarterfinals, Auger-Aliassime is still searching for a victory in their previous three encounters.
This moment marks a crucial point in Auger-Aliassime’s career. Following his quarterfinal defeat at Wimbledon this month, he parted ways with his long-time coach Frederic Fontang, marking his second consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal exit.
Despite displaying moments of brilliance and making deep runs in significant tournaments, including a Paris Masters final last November, this hometown arena presents a chance for Auger-Aliassime to establish his status as an elite competitor.
Another Canadian contender, Denis Shapovalov, who has faced his struggles domestically, will compete against American Zachary Svajda in the first round. Shapovalov is coming off a finals appearance at the ATP 250 Los Cabos Open.
Can Sabalenka Regain Dominance?
Aryna Sabalenka has dominated the WTA landscape in recent years, albeit currently grappling with a rocky phase. The world No. 1 unexpectedly fell in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon to Osaka, shortly after her quarterfinal exit at the French Open.
The hard courts at Sobey’s Stadium should offer a sense of familiarity and comfort for the Belarusian.
At 28, Sabalenka has showcased her prowess on hard courts, with a staggering record compared to her clay and grass performances.
Since missing the National Bank Open last year, she has lost only to two players on hard courts—Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina in three meetings. During this span, she has clinched four titles, including last year’s US Open, and reached the Australian finals.
Some athletes just gel with certain surfaces, and Sabalenka— a four-time Grand Slam champion—is certainly one of them, having secured all her titles on hard courts, with two each in Melbourne and New York.
Should Sabalenka falter early in Toronto, it could indicate a downturn in her game; however, a showdown with her rival, the No. 2 seed Rybakina seems more plausible as they head towards the finals.
The new 12-day format for the National Bank Open has sparked discussions since its introduction last summer, significantly altering player attendance patterns.
World No. 1 and reigning champion Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament last week, alongside tennis legend Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic’s exit is less surprising given his absence from Canada since 2018, as the four-time tournament champion at 39 has become increasingly discerning about which events he participates in.
Contrarily, Sinner, at just 24 and fresh off his second consecutive Wimbledon victory, also chooses to skip Canada for the second year running.
Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz, ranked No. 2, is notably absent due to ongoing injury issues, having not played in Canada since 2023.
While these withdrawals could potentially enhance Auger-Aliassime’s prospects, Quebec fans are surely disappointed to miss out on some of tennis’s biggest stars.
The NBO has always found itself squeezed between the Wimbledon and US Open championships, just before the Cincinnati Masters, which offers the same total prize purse.
Fernandez Faces Challenges
Montreal’s Leylah Fernandez emerges as the highest-ranked Canadian in the Toronto lineup, positioned as the 30-seed. Unfortunately, she’s experienced a significant drop, falling nine spots to No. 34 in the world rankings.
This season has been particularly challenging for Fernandez. At the DC Open earlier this week, where she was the defending champion, she fell apart in the second round, losing in straight sets after trailing five consecutive games.
Fernandez has also faced difficulties at Grand Slam events this year, exiting in the first round at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon.
For the 23-year-old, who made it to the US Open finals in 2021 and secured two singles titles the prior year, the 2026 season thus far has been nothing short of disappointing.
As if her struggles weren’t evident enough, Fernandez has yet to advance past the third round in six appearances at the National Bank Open.
Several Canadian women will join the fray as wildcards— including Andreescu, who is set to face Czechia’s Nikola Bartunkova on Sunday— but Fernandez stands as the top draw on the roster. With a competitive women’s field boasting only one top-10 player absent, reversing her fortunes won’t come easily.
Though Mboko is unable to defend her title, American powerhouse Ben Shelton will be looking to retain his.
Shelton’s triumph in Toronto over Karen Khachanov not only marked his first Masters 1000 title but also felt like a grand debut stage. At just 23 years old, with one of the tour’s most potent serving games, Shelton appears poised to end the American men’s Grand Slam drought that has lasted since Andy Roddick in 2003.
Since last year’s final, Shelton has made significant strides at major events, featuring quarterfinal runs at Cincinnati, the Paris Masters, and the Australian Open.
A player who flourishes on hard courts, Shelton is also known for engaging the crowd, always rallying their support. As the defending champion, he will aim to leverage the Canadian audience’s enthusiasm— provided he avoids facing a Canadian opponent.
A Wave of World Cup Excitement
After the FIFA World Cup festivities wrapped up in Toronto recently, national pride remains palpable.
Emerging star Alex Eala continues to receive outstanding support from Filipino fans worldwide. The 21-year-old’s rapid rise into the top 30 of the WTA rankings has garnered an expanding fanbase. Given that the Greater Toronto Area is home to Canada’s largest Filipino population, Eala should enjoy robust backing during her tournament matches.
Polish sensation Iga Swiatek remains a favorite for many in Toronto, bolstered by the city’s significant Polish-Canadian community. This six-time Grand Slam champion is eagerly chasing her first NBO title.
Additionally, Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, ranked ninth and tenth respectively, are expected to draw enthusiastic crowds in Toronto.
In Montreal, keep an eye on rising Brazilian star Joao Fonseca, who has gained a fanbase following his standout third-round victory over Djokovic at Roland Garros. Although the Brazilian community in the city is small, Fonseca’s newfound popularity promises to attract passionate supporters.
